The Conclusion: DraftKings DFS Core, GPP plays

Welcome to The Conclusion. Where each week I will go over my final player pool for DraftKings main slate. This is not a list of all the good players. This is a list of players that will make my final player pool. We can’t play everyone.

Week 4 was a solid week for us. Something I do recommend is to make sure you’re following me on Twitter/X. When I do have updates to the article on Sunday morning, those will be posted there. For instance, last week, after the inactive list came out, we got off the Chicago Bears and Los Angeles Rams stack. I mentioned that if Keenan Allen were to be active, that could muddy the stack. After Allen was listed as active, I decided to pivot off the stack completely. Even though I don’t double stack Justin Fields often, it fit well and was something I was doing. Those two moves contributed to what was a solid day.

My contest selection for the main slate will generally be single or three max entry tournaments with less than 1,000 entries. I’ll usually do three lineups each week. This week I’ll be in single entry small field entries.

Stack No. 1: Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars

The Indianapolis Colts will head south to take on the Jacksonville Jaguars at 1 p.m. EST on Oct 7. We have a respectable game total of 46.

I’m going to play this as if Anthony Richardson is out. Reports are Joe Flacco (5.6k) has taken a majority, if not all, the first team snaps during practice on during the week. Flacco will have a great matchup against the Jaguars this week.  The Jaguars allow the second-most passing yard per game this season at 283.8 yards per game. They have allowed 7 passing touchdowns and are allowing the third-most yards per attempt at 7.99. Trevor Lawrence is also in play in this matchup. With Jonathan Taylor out, and the Jaguars having a decent run defense (sixth in yard per carry allowed) we could see Flacco drop back 35-plus times this week. As of this writing, Flacco is projected to be extremely low owned, but I imagine once Richardson is officially ruled out, that ownership will climb. If Richardson is active and starting, I’ll pivot off the Flacco stack.

I’m most likely going to double stack Flacco with Micheal Pittman (6.0k) and Josh Downs (5.1k). Flacco isn’t getting many, if any points with his legs. If he gets there, it’s likely to be through the air and with volume. Downs and Pittman are his top two targets and with their cheap salaries, they can easily be played together with Flacco. Last week with Flacco playing majority of the game, Pittman and Downs had 18 targets with Pittman at 4.19 yards per route ran and Downs at 3.57. Alec Pierce and Adonai Mitchell can be used in large field contest, but they won’t make my small field player pool.

On the Jaguar side, I’m most interested in Brian Thomas Jr. (5.9k). Thomas has 18 targets over the last two games and draws the best matchup for the Jaguars. Evan Engram (4.6k) is expected to return from injury and is in play here too. Christian Kirk (5.7k), who leads the team in targets through four weeks, can also be used. Kirk and Engram can eat into each other’s production at times which has me leaning toward the Thomas side. If Engram were to be inactive, then Brenton Strange (3.2k) would be in play.

Trey Sermon (5.7k) will draw the start. The Jaguars have been solid in run defense only allowing 3.94 yards per carry, coming in sixth-best in the league. Sermon will make my player pool, but not someone I’m going out of my way to get too. The Jaguars running backs have a good matchup, but I’ll pass at this time as we’ve seen Tank Bigsby eat into some of Travis Etienne’s workload last week.

Stack No. 2:  San Francisco 49ers

The San Francisco 49ers will play host to the Arizona Cardinals at 4:05 p.m. EST on Oct 6. This game supports the highest game total on the slate at 49 points.

The 49ers are the only team listed because I don’t have much interest on the Arizona side. It is certainly possible a Cardinal puts up a decent score, but I just don’t see myself getting here in my small field contest. This is about the San Francisco side for me. If I was to play someone from the Arizona side, I’d lean toward tight end Trey McBride or running back James Conner.

Arizona is a team we have attacked all season so far, and that’s not stopping this week. They rank toward the bottom of the league against the pass and run. Brock Purdy (6.2k) will be one of the three quarterbacks I use this week. Purdy will likely be the highest owned quarterback this week, especially in small field contest. Purdy is third in passing yards per game at 282.5 and first in yards per attempt at 9.3.

My favorite pass catcher for the 49ers this week is Debo Samuel (6.8k). Samuel has traditionally been the zone beater for the 49ers and Arizona is currently running zone at the 12th-highest clip at 73.4 percent. Samuel has a solid +10.6 percent coverage matchup per Fantasy Points Data Suite. I’m probably just going to single stack Purdy, but George Kittle (5.6k) has a fabulous matchup as well and will be making my player pool. Kittle is listed as questionable, so that is something we need to monitor. Kittle has a +18.7 percent coverage matchup. If I can afford Kittle, I have no issues getting to him. Brandon Aiyuk (6.3k) can also be used in this spot. Aiyuk has traditionally been better vs. man coverage. When Arizona does play man coverage, they are allowing the seventh most fantasy points per drop back at 0.66. Aiyuk will be a contrarian way to attack this game as he will come with a fraction of the ownership of Samuel. I still prefer Samuel in this particular spot.

I won’t use Jordan Mason (7.4k) in my Purdy stack, but I will make sure he hits at least one of my other lineups. Mason will be the highest owned running back on the slate for good reason. Arizona has been gashed by opposing running backs the last two weeks. Last week Brian Robinson and Jeremy McNichols of the Washington Commanders combined for 29 carries and 169 yards with 3 touchdowns. They added 4 catches for 18 yards, too. The week before that, David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs of the Detroit Lions combined for 39 carries 188 yards and 1 touchdown, adding 3 catches for 37 yards and a touchdown (the TD was on a hook and ladder). Mason has 91 of the 49ers' 98 rushing attempts from running backs. He leads the NFL in rush attempts.

Stack No. 3: Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals

The Baltimore Ravens will take on division rival Cincinnati Bengals at 1 p.m. EST on Oct 6. This game has the second-highest game total on the slate at 48.5.

The pricing of the players in this game will keep this spot relatively low owned compared to some of the other games this week. Only one player (Derrick Henry) from either side is projected to be more than 10 percent owned with another player (Lamar Jackson) right around 10 percent.  

Both Lamar Jackson (7.5k) and Joe Burrow (6.4k) are in good matchups and in play. Right now, I lean to the Burrow side. The Bengals are sixth in PROE (Pass Rate Over Expectation) at 3 percent. Baltimore has also been solid against the run, allowing a league-low 3.04 yards per carry and 57.8 yards per game. I expect the Bengals will have to lean into the pass where Baltimore has allowed the fourth-most yards at 1,128 and the third-most passing yards per game at 282.0. But Jackson is firmly in play and has been lights out to start the year.

Derrick Henry (7.8k) is another reason I plan on using Burrow. You can certainly pair Jackson and Henry together, but I prefer the $1,100 saving I get from Burrow. Henry has 49 carries and 350 rush yard with 3 touchdowns over the last two weeks. He has added 4 catches for 33 yards and 1 touchdown during that time.  Henry leads the NFL with 480 rushing yards through four games. The Bengals allow 145.5 rushing yards per game, eighth most. They are tied for the fourth-most touchdowns allowed at five. I expect the Ravens to run ball barring them getting behind a bunch early.

Ja’Marr Chase (8.0k) is always in play and he’ll be in my player pool, but I want to look at Tee Higgins (6.0k) first. I mentioned Higgins last week, and he was ok. He caught 6 balls for 60 yards. He did have 10 targets. A big game is coming from Higgins at some point. Per Fantasy Points Data Suite, Higgins has an expected point average of 17.79, but only has a 9.5 average. His usage suggests a big game is on the horizon. This is a good matchup for both Chase and Higgins. Higgins has a +16.8 percent coverage matchup grade and Chase is at +14.5 percent.

The Ravens have been leaky against tight ends this year. Mike Gesicki (3.4k) is an option, but someone I’m interested in Eric All Jr. (2.7k) for Cincinnati. All played 60 percent of the snaps last week, 18 more than Gesicki. Although All isn’t running as many routes at Gesicki is, when he does run a route, he has been targeted on 35 percent on his routes ran with 2.41 yards per route. All has 12 catches on 12 targets over the last three games. If the tight end position stays low scoring and All can take advantage of the matchup, he could be a super cheap and low owned option to pair with Burrow or even Jackson.

I don’t have any interest in Ravens pass catchers. It’s complete guess work at this point and Jackson has only attempted 33 passes over his last two games. If playing large field tournaments, sure, take some shots.

Game Target No. 1: Green Bay Packers at Los Angeles Rams

The Green Bay Packers will head west to take on the Los Angeles Rams at 4:25 p.m. EST on Oct 6. This game is tied for the second highest game total on the week at 48.5.

This game will be the most popular game on the slate. Five players are currently being projected at more than 20 percent ownership. Like last week's game between the Commanders and Cardinals, I want pieces of this game, but I think the chance that this game doesn’t quite get there is higher than what ownership would suggest. I will likely want a player from Green Bay and/or the Rams in most, if not all my lineups as it’s hard to envision this game completely failing. It’s likely someone walks away with a score we want. I believe this game has one of the biggest leverage pieces on the entire slate.

If you want to stack this game, I completely get it. Jordan Love and even Matt Stafford can be played.

Let’s start with the five chalkiest players. All these players will make my player pool. Which ones I get to, I’m not for sure yet. But I will be careful not to put too many of the chalky players in the same lineup. Kyren Williams (7.6k) is projecting to be the second highest owned running back on the slate. Williams is the true definition of a workhorse running back. He has played 202 of 239 team snaps and has rushed for 73 of the teams 95 attempts. He also has 14 targets on the season. Most of the remaining rush attempts have come from garbage time late in the game. Jayden Reed (6.5k) and Dontayvion Wicks (5.0k) are projecting to be two of the top 3 owned wide receivers. Reed has been on absolute fire to start the year and Wicks is set to see a big increase in playing time with Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs set to miss this week’s game. Both are in good matchups but I do favor Wicks in this game due to him having the better matchup on the outside and him being $1,500 cheaper. Both are firmly in play. Jordan Whittington (4.6k) is the third receiver in this game projecting for over 20 percent ownership. Whittington had a team high in routes ran, targets and catches last week. He was on the field a ton. At his price tag, he is in play, but this feels sketchy to me. I doubt I get to Whittington this week simply due to his ownership. The last player projected for over 20 percent ownership is Tucker Kraft (3.5k). In small field contests, Kraft will almost certainly be over 30 percent owned, if not in the 35-40 percent range. Kraft will make my player pool, but he is the Packer I’m least likely to get to. It’s not that I don’t like Kraft. I do. He’s in a good matchup, too. The ownership and the way the tight end position have been this year, this just seems like a trap to me. In the games Love has played, Kraft is fourth in team target percentage at 11.2 and eighth in aDOT (average depth of target) at 3.5. All of these guys are in play. I’m more likely to get to Williams, Reed and/or Wicks. But if salary is needed, I think Whittington and Kraft can be used.

The biggest leverage on the slate, in my opinion, goes to Josh Jacobs (6.4k). Jacobs is being projected between 12 and 14 percent ownership. Depending on which ownership projections you look at, eight to 10 running backs are projecting for higher ownership. The Rams allow a league-worst 165.5 rushing yards per game, and the fifth-worst yards per carry at 4.98. We know the Packers want to be a balanced team. Jacobs will be on at least one of my teams, if not more. Jacobs is my favorite leverage play on the slate. Some positive regression is coming for Jacobs. No better spot than now with the Packers missing two key wide receivers.

If I’m playing a Rams wide receiver, I think my favorite is Tutu Atwell (4.9k). Atwell led the team in receiving yards last week and has an aDOT of 15.8 over that last two weeks. Atwell is their big-play wide receiver and can get there in one play, while Whittington will be depending on volume targets underneath. Colby Parkinson (3.7k) is also in play, but he’ll come with some ownership (15-18 percent range). Atwell will come at a fraction of the ownership that Whittington does. Again, I don’t know if I get to any Rams pass catchers, but if I do, I prefer Atwell.

The last two players I want to mention in this game are Bo Melton (3.3k) and Malik Heath (3.2k). I prefer Melton. Both players only ran five routes last week, but with Doubs—who played the full game last week—set to miss this game along with Watson both Melton and Heath are expected to see increased playing time. Last week Melton had 3 targets on the five routes. He caught 1 pass for 28 yards. We’ve seen Melton do it before. Over the final three games last season, he had 15 catches on 22 targets for 211 yards and 1 touchdown. His breakout game came against the Minnesota Vikings when he had 6 catches for 105 yards and a touchdown. I’m not expecting that kind of performance this week from Melton, but at 3.3k we don’t need that for small field contests. Melton is currently projecting for about 5 percent ownership. Don’t go overboard with Melton, but don’t be afraid to throw him in a lineup or two if you’re needing to save salary.

One-offs:

The following list of players will be the players I fill out the rest of lineups with. Whether it be as a mini stack or a one-off. I won’t be able to use everyone, but I will consider all when building lineups.

RB: Kenneth Walker (6.8k): Walker has been great in his two starts this year. He has 21.9 and 33.6 DK points and the Giants allow 4.66 yards per carry, ninth-worst in the NFL. The Giants have only allowed 1 rushing touchdown, though. Walker is firmly in play as a home favorite in a good matchup.

RB: Tyrone Tracy (4.6k): I’m unlikely to get here, but I’ll leave him in my player pool just in case. He’s super cheap but will also be chalky. Tracy is projecting to be in the 25 percent range of ownership, coming in third highest. I’m not 100 percent sure he doesn’t split carries with Eric Gray and with Malik Nabers out, how good will this offense be? At his current ownership, I find it tough for a player like me to get to him.

RB: Javonte Williams (5.2k): It’s never fun to roster a Denver Bronco these days. But Williams will be the first of two Broncos that make my player pool. If I pay down at running back this week, Williams is the one I’m more likely to get to. If Williams continues to get the bulk of the carries, and with Tyler Badie out, he is a positive regression candidate. Per Fantasy Points Data Suite, Williams is the top running due for positive regression. The Las Vegas Raiders are a good matchup for Williams as they allow the third worst yards per carry at 5.14.

RB: D’Andre Swift (5.7k): Ugh. This is Swift's third game in a row with a great matchup. He failed on the first attempt, and as it looked as if he was going to fail on the second attempt as well, he took a strangle hold in the second half last week. He ended with a stat line of 16 rushes for 93 yards and 1 touchdown, while adding 7 catches for 72 yards. This is probably best for larger field contests, but I’ll leave him in player pool. It’s just hard to trust this Bears team right now, but we can’t deny the matchup he is in. The Carolina Panthers are allowing the fourth-most yards per game at 148.8 and they have allowed 6 rushing touchdowns this season.

RB: Jerome Ford (5.8k): Ford is unlikely to win you a slate, but he’s also unlikely to lose you a slate. The Commanders allow 5.25 yards per carry, second worst in the league. If the Browns could get both their starting tackles back this week.

WR: DK Metcalf (7.0K): Metcalf has been great to start the season. He is thriving in new offensive coordinator Ryan Grubbs' system. Metcalf has three straight 100 yard receiving games. It’s a great matchup for Metcalf. Metcalf is my favorite spend-up option at the wide receiver position for my one-offs. If I can afford Metcalf, I’ll be playing him.

WR: Amari Cooper (6.2k): This is smash spot for Cooper. We have been attacking the Commanders defense since last season. Cooper is boom or bust due to his recent quarterback play, but we’ve seen him get there plenty of times even with Deshaun Watson as his quarterback. He comes in third on the positive regression list per Fantasy Points Data Suite. He is firmly in play if you have the salary.

WR: Courtland Sutton (5.5k): Our second Bronco. Sutton ranks second on the positive regression tool. He currently has 35 targets, the next closest player on the Broncos has 17. He leads the team with 1.57 yard per route run and the matchup is decent. Quarterback play is in question, but there is enough here to have Sutton in our pool as a decent salary saver.

TE: Dalton Kincaid (5.3k): I wouldn’t blame anyone that wanted to build around this game. It certainly has potential for some fireworks with some fun narratives. But I can’t play everyone, and some good games/players have to left off. I do have interest in Kincaid, though. The Buffalo Bills have had some funky game scripts this year, but we have seen the Bills make an effort early in games to get Kincaid the ball. Furthermore, Khalil Shakir is set to miss this game. Shakir has ran 66 routes from the slot, coming in second is Kincaid with 43. We could see increased action for Kincaid with Shakir out.

We don’t have as many one-offs this week, as I will mainly be focusing the teams mentions in the stacks and game target section and will fill in spots from there.

That will be it for this week’s player pool. Should anything change and I add anyone to the player pool, I’ll be sure to update that on X. You can follow me Twitter/X here. If you have any questions, don’t hesitate to reach out. Good luck this weekend and we’ll see you at the top of the leader board.