Oct 114 min read

Lock 'Em In: College Football Best Bets for Week 7

Updated: Oct 27

Welcome to College Football Dawgs' Best Bets, where each week I will give you my best bets for college football and the NFL.

We swept the board last week going 3-0 (+3 units), bringing our overall record to 15-9 (+4.95 units). We are 6-1 over the last two weeks. Let’s look to keep this hot streak rolling as the season progresses.

A few quick things before we get into the plays for this week. All bets will be to win 1 unit unless otherwise noted. Always practice bankroll management and be sure to shop around for the best lines and prices (betting apps for iPhone or Android). There is no such thing as a lock so be on the lookout for any “Lock of the Century” bettors.

Play 'em or fade 'em. Let's go.

College YTD: 15-9 (+4.95 units)

Best Bet No. 1: USC Trojans +4.5 (-122)

No. 4 Penn State Nittany Lions will head west to take on the USC Trojans at 3:30 p.m. EST on Oct 12.

USC is coming off a disappointing road loss to the Minnesota Golden Gophers. The loss may look worse than it really was. Per Parker Fleming's net success rate tool, Minnesota had the worst net success rate of any team to win a game last week.

Per the T-Shoe Index betting model created by Tyler Shoemaker, USC has a 15.30 percent edge. Steve Makinen has USC as the th-rd best underpriced underdog per his effective strength ratings.

The line on this game has peaked at 5.5 and we are now starting to see 4 and even 3.5 pop up. The line is moving down, despite Penn State getting over 72 percent of the bets.

Penn State will go on the road for only the second time this season. The Nittany Lions haven't traveled since Aug. 31 and they will travel halfway across the country for this matchup.

I’ll take the angry home dog coming off a loss at +4.5.

Best Bet No. 2: Iowa ML -142

The Iowa Hawkeyes will play host to the Washington Huskies at noon EST on Oct 12.

We will keep this one short. This is a tough spot for the Huskies. They are coming off a big revenge win against the Michigan Wolverines and they are now traveling halfway across the country to take on a stout Iowa team. Iowa has the 24th-ranked defense.

Power rankings generated by Adam Burke of ViSN have Iowa as a 5-point favorite.

I’m not a big fan of laying points with Iowa. I’ll take them on the money line at -142.

Best Bet No. 3: UCLA +4 (-110)

The Minnesota Golden Gophers will travel to the West Coast to take on the UCLA Bruins at 9 p.m. EST on Oct. 12.

The Golden Gophers are coming off their biggest win of the season as they upset the USC Trojans. As we mentioned previously, Minnesota had the worst net success rate of any team to win a college football game last week.

Per DraftKings betting splits, Minnesota is getting 68 percent of the bets, but the line has fallen from its peak of 5.5 down to 4 and even 3.5 at some shops. The line appears to be moving down due to sharp money being on UCLA. The Bruins have 48 percent of the money coming in on them despite only getting 32 percent of the bets.

UCLA has lost four games in a row, but all four of those games have come against ranked teams. The Bruins are 3-2 against the spread (ATS).

This is a tough spot for Minnesota. This is Minnesota’s seventh game in seven weeks. They are traveling all the way to the West Coast with a late-night kickoff after coming off a huge upset win.

Give me the home dog in UCLA +4.

Best Bet No. 4: West Virginia +3.5 (-110)

No. 11 Iowa State Cyclones will head east to take on the West Virginia Mountaineers at 8 p.m. EST on Oct 12.

This will be Iowa State's toughest road test outside of the state of Iowa. West Virginia is 2-0 at home and coming off a convincing road win against the Oklahoma State Cowboys.

West Virginia is 17-8 against the spread (ATS) in home games over the last five seasons.

We have seen this line bounce back and forth from 3 and 3.5 all week. It’s currently sitting at 3.5, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see it go back to 3. Every time it hits 3.5, it gets brought back down to 3. Most shops are juiced to the West Virginia side, indicating the line is likely to move back to 3.

Per the DraftKings betting splits, West Virginia is only getting 33 percent of the bets, but 46 percent of the money.

I’ll take the home dog in West Virginia +3.5