2024 Preview of the Competitive AAC

The 2024 college football season is nearly here, and as the calendar turns to August, many pundits are putting out their predictions for the upcoming season.

This is part two of a two-part series previewing the American Athletic Conference. SMU won the conference in 2023, but they're off to the Atlantic Coast Conference, paving the way for a new face to take over.

UTSA Roadrunners, Projection: 10-2 (8-0 AAC)

Jeff Traylor is now entering his fifth season as the UTSA Roadrunners head coach and thus far the Roadrunners have been bowl-eligible each year. More importantly, they’ve finished in the top 3 each season in the Conference USA and AAC standings. Last year was their worst finish in Traylor's tenure after ending the season third. The Roadrunners are looking to be back in a conference championship game this year, but that road won’t be as simple as just having the history to get back there. 

Redshirt sophomore and former NFL quarterback Josh McCown’s son Owen McCown is in place to lead the Roadrunners’ offense this season, but Traylor has not named an official starter has yet.

McCown hopes to get some production from Texas Tech junior transfer wide receiver JJ Sparkman who looks to find his groove at UTSA after only managing 23 catches and 245 yards in his career. Running back Kevorian Barnes split carries last year with running back Robert Henry and might take on more of a feature-back role this year after having a 715-yard season on the ground. Last year the offense ranked 47th in passing and 32nd in scoring. 

The No. 55-ranked total defense should look to improve upon that mark with six returning starters who are are all upperclassmen. Defensive coordinator Jess Loepp is returning for his fifth season on the coaching staff and his fourth as the defensive coordinator. With the amount of returning starters and Loepp’s experience, this could be the best defense in the conference.   

UTSA has a favorable conference schedule out the shoot with games against ECU, Rice, FAU and Tulsa. Then the Roadrunners will then have to face their toughest conference game of the season against Memphis on Nov. 2. That matchup could determine who wins the AAC regular-season championship.

USF Bulls, Projection: 9-3 (6-2)

Coming off their first winning season since 2018, the USF Bulls will improve upon a 7-6 mark in 2024. Last year, was the first year for head coach Alex Golesh who came off a successful season at Tennessee in 2022 as the team's offensive coordinator. Last year he took the Bulls to new heights as the offense ranked in the top 35 in the country in scoring, rushing and passing, and reached the top 20 in total offense. 

Sophomore quarterback Byrum Brown is coming off an impressive year as just the second quarterback in all of college football with more than 3,000 passing yards and 700 rushing yards. The other was LSU’s Heisman Trophy winner Jaylen Daniels. The offense is returning nine starters from last year. All except for Brown are upperclassmen. Brown was also named to the Maxwell Award watch list.

The defensive side of the ball is where the Bulls need to see the most improvement after ranking 109th in scoring, 128th in passing and 115th in total defense. The experience that defensive coordinator Todd Orlando brings to the Bulls' defense is valuable with 19 years as a coach in college football. USF is returning eight of their 11 starters from last season and all 11 defenders are upperclassmen, so confidence should be high for Orlando.

The Bulls’ schedule is tough out of the gate facing Alabama, Miami and then their first AAC game against Tulane. Then a make-or-break game against Memphis that USF will have to win to make any kind of headway in the AAC. The toughest conference game the rest of the way will be against UAB following Memphis. If the Bulls can survive that brutal stretch the rest of the schedule should be a breeze.

FAU Owls, Projection: 6-6 (3-5)

Coming off of head coach Tom Herman’s first year at FAU the fanbase should be focused on how the team’s culture is being built. After a 4-8 mark the signs are not there for a big boost from Year 1 to Year 2 in the win-loss column. However, if the team can win the games they're supposed to and stay competitive with the upper echelon teams in the AAC they will have a real shot at something in 2025.

Junior quarterback Cam Fancher, a transfer from Marshall, had a below-average season with the Thundering Herd posting a stat line of 2,162 passing yards, 11 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. The duel-threat quarterback can only hope that Hermans’ coaching will rub off on him as he did with some of the quarterbacks he’s coached in the past. At Ohio State, he turned quarterbacks Braxton Miller, RJ Barrett and Cardale Jones into some of the best in college football.

Defensively, FAU has a lot to improve on heading into this season. Co-defensive coordinator Rob Bellantoni and Brandon Harris bring back six returning starters this season. Expectations are that the defense will be the team’s strongest unit heading into this season. After showing flashes last year—including holding USF to just 14 points in a blowout 56-14 win—it makes one wonder what that side of the ball will look like if it can put it together for a full year.

FAU has an interesting start to the season aside from their opening game against Michigan State at East Lansing, Mich. The Owls will face Army on Sept. 7 and then three-game stretch where they face UConn, FIU and Wagner. This could be a 4-1 or 3-2 stretch out the gate for the Owls. Following that is a four-game gauntlet against North Texas, UTSA, USF and ECU. If they stay competitive it could give them enough momentum heading into next year.  

Tulsa Golden Hurricanes, Projection: 4-8 (2-6) 

Head coach Kevin Wilson is trying to bring Tulsa football back to its glory days of the mid- to late-2000s and early 2010s. After posting a 4-8 season last year the bright spots were few, but a the Hurricanes did have a stretch where the team was playing perhaps its most competitive football at the end of the season. Following the spring game Wilson said, “We’re stronger, we got a lot of things to do we need improvement.” 

Redshirt freshman quarterback Kirk Francis is projected to be the starting quarterback. Francis will go through his fair share of lumps in 2024. Francis played in the final four games of the season, and now that there is tape out on him, how will he respond? The Tulsa offensive line will be a weak point with two possible freshmen at the left and right tackle positions—left tackle Kaden Stanton and right tackle Bennett Ringleb.

Defensively, the effort wasn’t there throughout the entire season. With blowout losses in conference to Rice and SMU, it shouldn’t give fans the hope they desire heading into this year. Throw in a 125th ranking in total defense to boot and defensive coordinator Chris Polizzi could be fighting for his job if that mark doesn’t improve this year. 

UAB Blazers, Projection: 6-6 (4-4)

Trent Dilfer’s first season at UAB was a year of change for the Blazers. It marked the program's first year in the AAC and the first time the team would not make a bowl game for the first time since 2013. It also marked the first time the team finished below .500 since 2012. 

Dilfer was an interesting hire in November 2022 because he didn’t have prior coaching experience at the collegiate level. It left many wondering if UAB belonged in a conference like the AAC after many years of success in the smaller CUSA. The offense was not the problem, especially with senior quarterback Jacob Zeno back for another year after leading the 18th-best passing attack in the country. Six of 11 starters returning on offense should be the last of Dilfer’s worries heading into 2024.

What’s concerning is the play of the defense that ranked 127th in scoring and 118th in total defense. The entire secondary is not returning a single starter heading into the year. Both cornerbacks are sophomores which leaves tons of areas for improvement. Fortunately, UAB’s schedule is one of the easiest in the country. From teamrankings.com, it is the 91st in the country. 

The UAB schedule could give them momentum early on. By Week 11 the Blazers maight find themselves 6-3 heading to Memphis. A home game follows against Rice and then Charlotte on the road ends the Blazers season. Blazers Nation will probably expect nothing less than a team that finished top 3 in their conference, but it is to be determined what kind of coach Dilfer will become.

Memphis Tigers, Projection: 9-3 (6-2)

After a Liberty Bowl victory last year over Iowa State and a 10-win season, the three losses Memphis sustained were all by a combined 21 points. The Tigers should have their eyes set on one of the 12 positions in the College Football Playoff’s new format. Head coach Ryan Silverfield is back for his fifth season and in the previous four seasons, the Tigers have not seen much dropoff from Mike Norvell’s teams. The Tigers have not had a losing season since 2013 and this season is set up for that streak to stay intact. 

Memphis’ offense was ranked in the top 10 in scoring and senior quarterback Seth Henigan should have an even better year than last year. It would be difficult to imagine a first team All-AAC list with Hanigan not being on it. This is the first year that Hanigan didn’t have to beat anyone for the starting quarterback job. Hanigan is also named to the Maxwell Award watch list and could be selected in next year’s NFL Draft. 

Memphis’ offense will bring back six out of 11 starters from last year. The Tigers boosted the sixth-highes scoring offense in the FBS last year. Offensive coordinator Tim Cramsey will return for his third season and could be a hot name to watch out for head coaching jobs next season. Senior running back transfer Mario Anderson, from South Carolina, should provide the Tigers with another weapon that makes the offense even more dangerous.

Last season the defense held the Tigers back from being a possible top team in the FBS. Memphis did turn over seven of their 11 starters. With only four returning starters on defense and a new defensive coordinator in Jordon Hawkins the Tigers will be looking for better results this year.  

The schedule for the Tigers has a tough out-of-conference game in Week 3 against Florida State in Tallahassee, Fla.. The Tigers will face USF in Week 6 in Tampa and that game could prove pivotal for both teams getting off to a good start in conference play. The Tigers have another tough match in Week 10 against UTSA in San Antonio, TX. Other than those three games, it should be smooth sailing for the Tigers.

Rice Owls, Projection: 6-6 (3-5)

Last year was the first step in the right direction for seventh-year head coach Mike Bloomgren’s Rice Owls. Why Rice has shown such patience with Bloomgreen is interesting. He has yet to lead the Owls to a winning season but this year could be the season they finish with winning record but it’ll all come down to coaching. 

Fourth-year offensive coordinator Marques Tuiasosopo hopes not to have any drop off from quarterback JT Daniels being replaced with junior EJ Warner, a transfer from Temple. Warner is coming off back-to-back 3,000 passing-yard seasons with 12 interceptions in his past two years. Bloomgren and his coaching staff need to improve Warner’s decision-making to make him a more effective quarterback this year. First-year sophomore starters Rawson MacNeill and Landon Ransom-Goelz will both need to grow with Warner in 2024. The offensive line, however, is returning three out of their five starters in junior left tackle Ethan Onianwa, senior center Braedon Nutter and right tackle Brant Banks, all of whom will need to play a role in keeping Warner upright. 

Defensively, Rice was stingy last year against the pass ranking 43rd in the country and 52nd overall in total defense. Defensive coordinator Brian Smith is back for his seventh season at Rice and returns seven out of his 11 starters. If Rice can get similar production out of its defense the Owls will be putting a lot of pressure on the offense to step it up for their first winning season under Bloomgren. 

Rice’s schedule is tricky aside from road games against Houston and Army in Week 3 and Week 4, respectively. The Owls should hold their own against the upper echelon in the AAC. The Owls have to remain competitive against UTSA, Tulane, Memphis and USF for Bloomgren to not end up on the hot seat.